The ITC Ruling

The US International Trade Commission (ITC) issued a final negative determination on March 12, 2026, concluding that Chinese imports of active anode material (AAM) have not materially retarded the establishment of a domestic US graphite industry.¹ The decision was not unanimous: ITC Chair Amy A. Karpel and Commissioner David S. Johanson voted in the negative, while Commissioner Jason E. Kearns voted in the affirmative.

The determination reverses the trajectory set by a January 2025 preliminary ITC ruling, which had found a reasonable indication that Chinese imports were materially retarding the domestic industry.² As a direct consequence of this final negative finding, the US Department of Commerce (DOC) will not issue antidumping duty (AD) or countervailing duty (CVD) orders on Chinese AAM imports.

The ITC investigation was initiated in December 2024 following a petition from Syrah Technologies LLC (a wholly owned subsidiary of Syrah Resources) and other members of the North American Graphite Alliance, which includes Anovion Technologies, Epsilon Advanced Materials, Novonix, and SKI US.³ The petitioners argued that Chinese AAM was being sold into the US market at unfairly low, subsidised prices, damaging the nascent domestic manufacturing base.

February Commerce Department Decision

In February 2026, the DOC published its final affirmative determination in the Federal Register, concluding that AAM from China was being sold at less than fair value (LTFV) across a period of investigation running from April 1 to September 30, 2024.⁴ Separate rate companies such as Tesla Manufacturing Brandenburg SE and Panasonic Global Procurement (China) Co., Ltd were assigned a weighted-average dumping margin of 93.50%, while the China-wide entity received a rate of 102.72% under adverse facts available.

The DOC also found that the Chinese government was providing countervailable subsidies to domestic AAM producers and exporters. Final aggregate AD/CVD rates determined by Commerce reached between 160% and 170%.² However, since both the DOC and the ITC must issue affirmative determinations for duty orders to take effect, the ITC’s negative ruling means these rates will not be applied.

*Based on adverse facts available. Source: Federal Register, February 17, 2026.

Market Reaction

The ruling delivered an immediate and severe blow to domestic graphite producers with US exposure. Syrah Resources (ASX: SYR), the only current domestic producer of AAM at its Vidalia, Louisiana facility, saw its shares fall -29.17% on the ASX following the announcement. Novonix (NASDAQ/ASX: NVX), which operates a synthetic graphite facility in Chattanooga, Tennessee, fell -6.0%.

The scale of the sell-off in Syrah reflects the company’s acute dependence on the outcome of this case. Syrah’s Vidalia facility is the only operating domestic AAM producer in the United States, and the removal of prospective high-rate duties significantly weakens the commercial case for customers to switch from lower-cost Chinese supply. Novonix’s smaller decline likely reflects its broader binding offtake agreements with Panasonic Energy and PowerCo, which provide revenue visibility regardless of tariff status.

Company Responses

Several affected Graphite companies issued statements expressing disappointment with the ruling while seeking to reassure investors about the resilience of their underlying strategies.

Syrah Resources managing director Shaun Verner stated the company remains committed to the ramp-up of its Vidalia AAM facility, noting that other tariff and policy positions remain supportive of the project.²

“Whilst we are disappointed in the final negative determination from the ITC, Syrah remains committed to the ramp up of its Vidalia AAM facility which is the only domestic producer of AAM in the United States. Other tariff and policy positions remain strongly supportive of Vidalia’s ramp-up and further development in the United States.”

— Shaun Verner, Managing Director, Syrah Resources

Syrah also disclosed that it is considering its legal options and may appeal the ITC’s final determination.² The company noted that ITC’s ruling may delay AAM sales from the Vidalia facility and limit near-term demand growth for both Vidalia-produced AAM and Balama natural graphite as a feedstock for ex-China natural graphite AAM facilities.

Novonix CEO Mike O’Kronley emphasised the company’s binding offtake agreements and advanced synthetic graphite production capability in North America.⁵

“While the ITC’s final determination is not in favor of the domestic industry, NOVONIX remains firmly on track with its North American growth strategy. The Company continues to advance its synthetic graphite production and is supported by binding offtake agreements with Panasonic Energy and PowerCo, underpinning strong demand for our products.”

— Mike O’Kronley, CEO, Novonix

Novonix also highlighted that its products help US battery manufacturers secure Section 45X production tax credits, which require the use of non-Chinese materials — an advantage that persists independently of the ITC determination.

Remaining Tariff Protections

While the ITC ruling eliminates the prospect of new AD/CVD orders, a meaningful layer of existing trade protection remains in place for domestic producers. Chinese AAM imports continue to face a 25% tariff under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974.⁵ In addition, President Trump issued a proclamation under Section 122 of the Trade Act on February 24, 2026, imposing a 10% global import duty for up to 150 days, taking the combined applicable tariff on Chinese AAM to 35% during this period.

Syrah also noted that tariffs are being considered under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act, and that further policy implementation under the US administration’s critical minerals and national security agenda continues to encourage ex-China sourcing strategies.²

The broader policy environment therefore remains tilted toward domestic supply chain development, even if the specific AD/CVD route has now been closed. Both Syrah and Novonix are positioning their long-term commercial cases around 45X tax credit eligibility and supply chain security rather than tariff-driven cost disadvantages for Chinese competitors.