Cobalt Stocks

Cobalt prices peaked above $80,000 per tonne in early 2022 before collapsing more than 70% to multi-year lows by late 2024. The primary driver was a dramatic surge in DRC production — particularly from CMOC's Tenke Fungurume and Kisanfu mines, which together doubled output in 2024 — overwhelming demand growth from the EV battery sector. Compounding this, the rapid adoption of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery chemistry in China, which contains no cobalt, structurally reduced cobalt intensity per electric vehicle. The result was a market that moved from deficit to severe surplus within 24 months, with cobalt hydroxide prices briefly trading below the marginal cost of production for several DRC operators.

The DRC government imposed a full cobalt export ban in February 2025, subsequently replaced in October 2025 by an annual quota of 87,000 tonnes for 2026 and 2027. For DRC-exposed producers like Glencore and CMOC, the ban initially caused significant inventory build-up in-country and disrupted cash conversion, with cobalt produced but unable to be sold. The quota regime has since tightened effective global supply, contributing to a cobalt price recovery in H2 2025. The ban's impact on individual stocks depends heavily on balance sheet strength and the proportion of earnings derived from cobalt versus copper: Glencore was relatively insulated given copper's dominance in its DRC cash flows, while CMOC faced more acute working capital pressure given its scale of cobalt production.

For producers using high-pressure acid leach (HPAL) processing — such as those operating in Indonesia and the Philippines — cobalt and nickel are co-produced and their relative prices directly affect project economics. When nickel prices are high, HPAL projects are profitable even at weak cobalt prices; when both metals are depressed simultaneously, as occurred in 2024, HPAL economics deteriorate sharply. For DRC-based copper-cobalt miners, the relationship is different: cobalt is a by-product of copper, and since copper determines whether operations run at all, cobalt production continues largely regardless of cobalt price, which structurally amplifies supply surpluses during down cycles.

Pure-play cobalt exposure is rare among listed companies. The most direct leverage to cobalt prices among listed equities comes from Sherritt International (where cobalt accounts for a meaningful share of revenue), Cobalt Blue Holdings (a pre-revenue developer with no offsetting metal streams) and, at the midstream level, Umicore's Cobalt & Specialty Materials division. The major diversified producers — Glencore, CMOC and Vale — offer significant cobalt production but in each case cobalt is a by-product or secondary commodity, diluting price sensitivity at the portfolio level. Huayou offers more nuanced exposure through downstream processing margins rather than direct commodity price linkage.

The primary demand catalyst remains EV battery adoption, where NMC (nickel-manganese-cobalt) and NCA (nickel-cobalt-aluminium) chemistries retain higher energy density than LFP and are better suited to long-range applications, premium vehicles and cold-climate markets. A demand-side shift back toward higher-cobalt chemistries — driven by range anxiety concerns or grid storage applications — could meaningfully tighten the market. The DRC export quota regime provides a supply-side floor, and several high-cost producers have curtailed output or placed projects on care and maintenance. Industrial and aerospace applications, which consume cobalt in superalloys and cutting tools, provide a stable baseline demand that is less cyclical than batteries.

Jervois Global is a cautionary tale for Western cobalt development during the 2022–2025 price collapse. The company had assembled a portfolio of cobalt assets across the United States (Idaho Cobalt Operations), Finland (Jervois Finland refinery) and Brazil (São Miguel Paulista), but was unable to sustain operations as cobalt prices fell 72% from their 2022 peak, reaching below $10 per pound by early 2025. The Idaho Cobalt Operations — the largest high-grade confirmed cobalt orebody in the US, which had received $15 million in Pentagon funding — was mothballed in 2023 weeks before commissioning. In January 2025 Jervois filed a prepackaged Chapter 11 bankruptcy, completed in 37 days, under which lender Millstreet Capital Management converted debt to equity and took the company private, wiping out existing shareholders. The Idaho mine remains the only high-grade US cobalt deposit of significance, sitting idle with no active cobalt mining in the United States as of early 2026.

The primary intermediate product from cobalt and nickel mining, produced either through DRC heap leaching and solvent extraction or HPAL processing. Cobalt hydroxide is the standard traded form of raw cobalt from the DRC, typically containing 30–40% cobalt by weight, and is the feedstock for Chinese refineries that produce battery-grade cobalt sulphate or cobalt metal. MHP is the analogous product from HPAL operations and contains both nickel and cobalt. Prices for cobalt hydroxide are quoted on a payability basis relative to the LME cobalt price, with payabilities typically ranging from 65–80%.

A hydrometallurgical processing technology that uses sulphuric acid under high temperature and pressure to dissolve nickel and cobalt from laterite ore bodies — the dominant ore type in Indonesia and the Philippines — into solution, from which metals can be recovered as MHP or refined products. HPAL is capital-intensive and technically challenging but enables processing of low-grade laterite ores that are uneconomic via conventional pyrometallurgical routes. The rapid deployment of HPAL capacity in Indonesia since 2021, primarily by Chinese companies, has dramatically expanded global cobalt supply outside the DRC.

The two dominant lithium-ion battery chemistries for electric vehicles. Lithium iron phosphate (LFP) contains no cobalt or nickel, is cheaper to produce, and has been adopted widely by Chinese EV manufacturers and Tesla for standard-range vehicles. Nickel-manganese-cobalt (NMC) retains higher energy density and is preferred for long-range applications; cobalt content in NMC has progressively declined as manufacturers shift toward high-nickel formulations (NMC 811, NMC 9.5.0.5) to reduce cost, though cobalt remains a structural component. The relative market share of LFP versus NMC is the single most important medium-term variable for cobalt demand forecasting.
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**Production / Development / Feasibility / Exploration.** The development stage of a mining project. Production is operating and generating revenue; Development is past feasibility and constructing; Feasibility is between PEA/PFS/DFS economic studies; Exploration is pre-resource-defined drilling. The phase materially affects risk and cost of capital.