MP Materials Surges as Trump Threatens China Tariffs Over Rare Earth Controls | Green Stocks Research
NEWS

MP Materials Surges as Trump Threatens China Tariffs Over Rare Earth Controls

MP Stock jumps 8.4% while broader market tumbles on escalating trade tensions

MP Materials facility with American flag, representing domestic rare earth production amid China trade tensions

MP Materials’ headquarters for rare earth magnet production in Fort Worth, Texas. Photo Credit: MP Materials

Key Points

  • MP Materials stock surged 8.37% while the S&P 500 plunged 2.71% as President Trump threatened massive tariffs on China over rare earth export restrictions.
  • The company secured a transformational $550 million DoD partnership in July featuring a $110/kg NdPr price floor mechanism and 10-year offtake guarantees.
  • MP Materials reported Q2 2025 revenue growth of 84% year-over-year to $57.4 million, with record NdPr production of 597 metric tons up 119%.
  • The DoD agreement positions MP Materials to build domestic rare earth magnet capacity targeting 10,000 metric tons annually with $140 million EBITDA guarantees.
  • American Rare Earths (ARRNF) and Energy Fuels (UUUU) also rallied, reflecting broad investor recognition of accelerating domestic supply chain development efforts.

MP Materials Corp. shares soared +8.37% on Friday, bucking a steep market selloff as President Donald Trump threatened massive tariffs on Chinese goods in response to Beijing’s tightening export controls on rare earth elements, minerals critical to defense systems, electric vehicles, and advanced technologies.

The California-based rare earth miner closed the session sharply higher while the S&P 500 plunged -2.71%, marking one of the index’s worst single-day performances this year. The divergence underscores growing investor appetite for domestic alternatives to China’s dominant position in the global rare earth supply chain.

Trump’s announcement came via his Truth Social platform, where he accused China of holding the world “captive” with its export restrictions.1 “I will be forced, as President of the United States of America, to financially counter their move,” Trump wrote, adding that he was considering “a massive increase of Tariffs on Chinese products coming into the United States of America.”

The remarks followed China’s implementation this week of stricter export controls requiring foreign entities to obtain licenses for products containing rare earths worth 0.1% or more of their value. The new regulations also mandate export licenses for companies using Chinese extraction, refining, or magnet recycling technology.2

The trade tensions led Trump to cancel a planned meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Seoul later this month. “I was to meet President Xi in two weeks, at APEC, in South Korea, but now there seems to be no reason to do so,” the president stated.

Strategic Government Partnership Positions MP Materials

MP Materials, which operates the only scaled rare earth mining and processing facility in North America at its Mountain Pass site in California, announced a transformational public-private partnership with the U.S. Department of Defense in July. The multi-billion-dollar agreement represents one of the most significant efforts to date to reduce American dependence on Chinese rare earth supplies.3

Under the landmark deal, the DoD committed $400 million in convertible preferred equity with a fixed conversion price of $30.03 per share and a 7% annual payment-in-kind liquidation preference. The government also received warrants exercisable over a 10-year period that would increase DoD ownership to 15% on an as-converted, as-exercised basis. Additionally, the agreement includes a $150 million loan with a 12-year duration to expand the company’s heavy rare earth element separation capabilities.

The partnership’s most notable feature is a neodymium-praseodymium price floor mechanism designed to provide MP Materials with stable, predictable revenue. The DoD has committed to paying the company the difference between a $110 per kilogram floor price and the market price for all NdPr products—including oxide, metal, and concentrate—over a 10-year term beginning in the fourth quarter of 2025. The agreement also includes revenue-sharing provisions, with the DoD receiving 30% of upside above the $110/kg threshold once MP Materials’ planned “10X” facility achieves target capacity.4

Ambitious Manufacturing Expansion

The DoD partnership also encompasses plans for MP Materials to construct a new “10X” magnet manufacturing facility that, combined with its existing Independence plant expansion, will target 10,000 metric tons of annual magnet production capacity. The DoD has committed to a 100% offtake agreement for defense consumption and commercial syndication, with cost-plus pricing and a $140 million minimum EBITDA guarantee with a 2% annual escalator.5

This 10-year offtake commitment includes additional upside-sharing provisions, with the DoD receiving the first $30 million of EBITDA exceeding $140 million and splitting any additional upside above $170 million on a 50-50 basis with MP Materials. The structure provides the company with predictable cash flows while aligning government and shareholder interests in scaling domestic rare earth magnet production.

Company Operations and Recent Performance

MP Materials is the largest rare earth materials producer in the Western Hemisphere, operating the Mountain Pass mine and processing facility in San Bernardino County, California. The company also owns and operates the Independence rare earth metal, alloy, and magnet manufacturing facility in Fort Worth, Texas, where it began production of magnetic precursor products in December 2024.6

The company’s operations span the entire rare earth value chain. Its Materials segment produces both rare earth concentrate and separated rare earth products, including neodymium-praseodymium oxide. The Magnetics segment, based at the Independence facility, anticipates manufacturing neodymium-iron-boron permanent magnets by the end of 2025.

In its second quarter 2025 earnings report released in August, MP Materials demonstrated significant operational progress. Total revenue increased 84% year-over-year to $57.4 million, driven primarily by higher production of separated products. The company achieved record NdPr production of 597 metric tons, representing a 119% increase compared to the prior year period, while NdPr sales volumes more than tripled to 443 metric tons.7

Materials segment revenue rose 20% to $37.5 million, as NdPr oxide and metal sales surged $18.5 million due to the 226% increase in sales volumes and a 19% improvement in realized pricing. The company’s strategic decision to cease rare earth concentrate shipments to China resulted in a $12.5 million decline in concentrate revenue, but this was more than offset by growth in higher-value separated products. Rare earth oxide production reached 13,145 metric tons, the second-highest quarterly output in company history, up 45% year-over-year.

The Magnetics segment continued scaling operations, generating $19.9 million in revenue and $8.1 million in Adjusted EBITDA as the company profitably ramped metal production. Despite these operational gains, the company reported a net loss of $30.9 million for the quarter, though this represented a 9% improvement from the prior year’s loss of $34.1 million.

For the full year 2024, MP Materials reported total revenue of $203.9 million, down 20% from $253.4 million in 2023, as lower rare earth pricing pressured results. The company posted a net loss of $65.4 million compared to net income of $24.3 million in the prior year. However, as of December 31, 2024, the company maintained a strong liquidity position with $850.9 million in cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments.8

Strategic Implications

The confluence of escalating U.S.-China trade tensions and MP Materials’ strengthened government partnership highlights the growing strategic importance of domestic rare earth production. Rare earth elements are essential inputs for permanent magnets used in electric vehicle motors, wind turbines, defense systems, robotics, and numerous advanced technologies.

China currently dominates the global rare earth supply chain, controlling the vast majority of refining and processing capacity even as other countries have developed mining operations. Beijing’s willingness to use export restrictions as a geopolitical tool has intensified Western concerns about supply chain vulnerabilities, particularly for applications critical to national security and the energy transition.9

Other U.S. rare earth companies also rallied sharply on Friday, with American Rare Earths (ARRNF) surging +32% and Energy Fuels (UUUU) jumping +3.3%, reflecting broad investor recognition that escalating trade friction could accelerate efforts to develop alternative supply chains outside China.

MP Materials’ integrated approach—combining low-cost mining operations with midstream separation capabilities and downstream magnet manufacturing—positions the company as a potential cornerstone of a revitalized American rare earth industry. The DoD’s substantial financial commitment and offtake guarantees provide both capital for expansion and revenue visibility during what is expected to be a multi-year buildout of domestic capacity.

The company’s Mountain Pass facility, which has produced rare earths intermittently since 1952, represents the Western Hemisphere’s largest commercial source of rare earth materials. MP Materials acquired the site from the Molycorp estate in 2017 and has since implemented significant operational improvements, achieving what it describes as world-class production cost levels for rare earth concentrate.10

As geopolitical tensions show no signs of abating and demand for rare earth magnets continues growing with electric vehicle and renewable energy adoption, MP Materials appears increasingly positioned to benefit from what could be a fundamental restructuring of global rare earth supply chains. Friday’s stock performance, in stark contrast to broader market weakness, suggests investors are beginning to price in this strategic shift.

References

  1. Truth Social, President Donald Trump statement on China rare earth export controls, October 11, 2025.
  2. China Ministry of Commerce, “Notice on Strengthening Export Control of Rare Earth Products,” October 8, 2025.
  3. MP Materials Corp., “MP Materials Announces Transformational Public-Private Partnership with U.S. Department of Defense,” Press Release, July 2025.
  4. MP Materials Corp., “Public-Private Partnership Investor Presentation,” July 2025, Slide 5: NdPr Price Floor Commitment Overview.
  5. MP Materials Corp., “Public-Private Partnership Investor Presentation,” July 2025, 10X Facility offtake agreement details.
  6. MP Materials Corp., Annual Report 2024, Form 10-K filed with SEC, February 2025.
  7. MP Materials Corp., “Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Report,” Press Release, August 2025.
  8. MP Materials Corp., Annual Report 2024, Form 10-K filed with SEC, February 2025, Financial statements and liquidity position.
  9. MP Materials Corp., Annual Report 2024, Form 10-K filed with SEC, February 2025, Risk factors section on China trade policies and rare earth supply chain vulnerabilities.
  10. MP Materials Corp., Annual Report 2024, Form 10-K filed with SEC, February 2025, Mountain Pass facility history and operations overview.

Join the GSR Community

Share This