Solar Earnings Recap – Q2 2023
Q2 2023 Solar Earnings Recap - Enphase, First Solar, SolarEdge and SunRun

July 27, 2023

Background

Enphase is a leading provider of solar microinverters, energy storage, and software for residential solar

Results

October 25th, 2022 Projected Actual Result YoY Chg
Revenue (USD $Mn)     726   711.1  MISS    34%
Adjusted EPS     1.09   1.25  BEAT 108.33%
Guidance Expects Q3 revenue in the range of $550 million to $600 million, below the $746.5 million consensus expectations.

Share performance on day of announcement:  -11%

Takeaways

  • Shares fell significantly as the company’s Q3 2023 revenue guidance came in significantly below consensus estimates.
  • The company blamed higher interest rates and lower prices for solar power for a slowdown in the United States.

Quote

The overall U.S. market is experiencing a broad-based slowdown due to high interest rates. As I said earlier, our Q2 sell-through of microinverters in the U.S. was only up 2% compared to Q1 and only up 2% year on year.

The second quarter is typically stronger than the first quarter, but that did not happen this year due to the market environment. Let’s now discuss the market trends we are seeing in the U.S., split by California and rest of the U.S.

For non-California states, the Q2 sell-through of microinverters was 6% lesser as compared to Q1 and 11% lesser year on year. The sell-through was disproportionately worse in Texas, Florida and Arizona. In these states, the economics of loan financing has worsened due to the combination of rising interest rates and lower utility rates.

In California, the Q2 sell-through of microinverters was 20% higher compared to Q1 and 34% higher year on year. The higher sell-through was driven by high backlog of NEM 2.0 installation, which is expected to last through this summer. We expect NEM 3.0 will have a greater impact on results beyond Q3, and I will speak more on what we are seeing there later.”

– Badri Kothandaraman, President and CEO [Prepared Remarks]

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July 28th, 2023

Background

First Solar is the world’s largest thin-film solar module manufacturer.

Results

Q2 2023 Projected Actual Result YoY Chg
Revenue (USD $Mn)     719    811  BEAT    30.6%
GAAP EPS     .94    1.59  BEAT    NM
Guidance 2023 Net Sales guidance ($3.4bn to $3.6bn) and EPS guidance ($7 to $8 per share) unchanged.

Share performance on day of announcement:  +4.83%

Takeaways

  • Net sales of $811 million
  • Net income per diluted share of $1.59
  • Net cash balance of $1.5 billion
  • YTD net bookings of 21.1 GW; 8.9 GW since first quarter earnings call
  • Expected volume sold backlog of 77.8 GW
  • Up to $1.1 billion investment in a new 3.5 GW Series 7 US manufacturing facility

Quotes

“The second quarter of the year continued the steady progress established in the first, as we ramped up production and delivery of our next-generation Series 7 modules, reinforced our global leadership in thin film PV with a strategic acquisition, and continued our strong bookings and ASP momentum. Moreover, continuing our commitment to sustainable long-term growth, earlier today we announced that we will invest up to $1.1 billion in building a new, fully vertically integrated, manufacturing facility in the United States, our fifth in the country.”

– Mark Widmar, CEO [Prepared Remarks]

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Presentation

August 1st, 2023

Background

SolarEdge is an Israeli company that sells direct current (DC) optimized solar inverters and battery systems.

Results

Q2 2023 Projected Actual Result YoY Chg
Revenue (USD $Mn) ᅠ ᅠ996 ᅠ ᅠ991.3 ᅠ MISS ᅠ ᅠ36.2%
Adjusted EPS ᅠ ᅠ2.56 ᅠ ᅠ2.62 ᅠ BEAT ᅠ ᅠ176%
Guidance The company expects Q3 2023 revenue between $880 million and $920 million, compared with analyst estimates of $1.05 billion.

Share performance on day of announcement:ᅠ -18.36%

Takeaways

  • Shares fell by almost a fifth following weaker than expected revenue guidance.
  • High interest rates, low electricity prices, and changes in the California solar market blamed.
  • Overall, megawatt shipments to Europe grew by 52% quarter over quarter, including 57% in residential and 50% quarter-over-quarter growth in commercial.

Quote

“In the U.S. commercial market, we continue to see stable demand, which we expect to gradually grow as a result of lower module prices and as projects that were on hold begin to move forward. This is expected that some developers who had halted project in anticipation of IRA clarifications related to the 10% ITC domestic manufacturing adder move forward with the project execution after realizing that IRA clarity will likely take longer than anticipated. In Rest of World, we see a mixed picture, where some countries are experiencing headwinds due to a higher interest rate.”

“On the electrical vehicle charging front, we continue to supply our AC EV chargers both the inverter integrated and stand-alone versions, and to date, have shipped over 45,000 units globally. As we unveiled at Intersolar, next year, we plan to release our bidirectional DC EV charger that will be DC-coupled, enabling greater charging efficiency through fewer AC-to-DC conversions.”

– Zvi Lando, CEO [Prepared Remarks]

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Webcast

Presentation

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August 2nd, 2023

Background

Sunrun is the market leader in U.S. residential solar installations with approximately 20% share.

Results

Q2 2023

Projected

(Zacks)

Actual Result YoY Chg
Revenue (USD $Mn) 621.9 590.2 MISS 1%
Adjusted EPS -0.34 0.25 BEAT NM
Guidance Management continues to expect Solar Energy Capacity Installed growth to be in a range of 10% to 15% for the full year 2023

Share performance on day of announcement:ᅠ 7.62%

Takeaways

  • Shares rise on surpise quarterly profit.
  • Storage Capacity Installed of 103 Megawatt hours in Q2, 35% growth year-over-year, reaching 918 Megawatt hours of Networked Storage Capacity, as storage attachment rates surge to 18% of new installations

Quote

Recent sales performance in California is encouraging and sales growth outside of California remains robust, allowing us to reiterate our guidance for 10% to 15% growth in new installations this year, which we believe represents strong market share gains. While sales in California in Q2 were below our initial expectations following the transition to the new Net Billing Tariff, our team is focused on generating value for shareholders, as we execute against our disciplined, margin-focused growth strategy.

– Mary Powell, CEO [Prepared Remarks]

 

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