J.P. Morgan Eye on the Market Podcast

The Energy Transition Show - Offshore Wind in the U.S. [abridged]

Podcast: The Energy Transition Show with Chris Nelder

 

Episode: Offshore Wind in the US

Length: 27:11

Produced By: XE Network

Date:  August 18,  2022

Overview

In this episode of the Energy Transition Show Host Chris Nelder discusses the state of offshore wind in the U.S. with Patrick Gilman, a Program Manager in the U.S. Department of Energy’s Wind Energy Technologies Office.

Note: The Energy Transition Show offers abridged versions of its podcasts for free, reserving full episodes for paying subscribers. These notes cover content from the abridged version of the podcast only.

The Advantages of Offshore Wind
  • Reduces the need for transmission capacity over land (which is a contentious)
    • Doesn’t face same hurdles as onshore transmission or land based solar/wind farms
  • Can step up when onshore resources are more expensive than expected
  • Higher capacity factors vs. Onshore wind/solar
  • Different generation profiles vs. onshore wind (balance variability of land-based solar/wind)
  • Longer Term —> could help to create green hydrogen
  • Creates jobs
    • Making turbine components, rebuilding port facilities, building specialized ships to install huge turbines in deep water
Global Offshore Wind Capacity & Targets
End of Year 2021:
  • Global cumulative capacity: 50GW, 250 operating projects
    • Mostly in Europe, Asia (particularly China) catching up very quickly
  • Industry installed record 17GW capacity (14GW was china)
    • Vietnam is new entrant to market
  • Capacity in all proposed projects globally – 370GW (up 20% since end of 2020)
Targets:
  • EU – 300GW offshore wind by 2050 (part of net zero economy plans)
  • UK – 40GW deployed by 2030
  • US – 30GW deployed by 2030
    • In general, a lot of projects in pipeline don’t get built
Offshore Wind in the U.S. - Project Pipeline

2021 U.S. pipeline – 40GW – 17GW have been awarded power purchase agreements or other offtake agreements

2021: BOEM auctioned off 5 new wind energy areas in New York Bights (NY/NJ coast)
  • This accounted for most of growth in pipeline
  • These areas have potential to host 10GW of capacity
  • Auction received $4bn of winning bids (indicator of good reception from market)
  • Project Overview
US current capacity– 2 small active projects, a total of 7 turbines for 42MW 
  • 30MW – Rhode Island
  • 12MW  – Virginia
Could be up to 1GW by end of 2024
  • 2 projects BOEM issued final approval for (operational in 2024)
    • 130MW south fork off coast of RI, MA (deliver into Long island)
    • 800MW vineyard wind 1 off MA
Dept of Energy outlook:
  • Current state policy commitments of 39GW by 2040
    • States have committed legally or as policy to procure this much power by 2040
  • Coastal states may get close to 50% of electricity from offshore wind in coming decades
  • 30GW by 2030 will:
    • Power 10 million American homes
    • Establish U.S. as major participant in offshore wind industry
    • Could set on path for 100GW+ by 2050 (5% of nations electricity)
Floating Offshore Wind
  • In deeper waters (over 60m) you need to put turbines on floating foundations
  • Promising frontier, starting to see some movement here
  • 60GW floating offshore in pipeline

Closing window for U.S. leadership
  • Other countries are ramping up ambition around floating offshore wind
  • Global supply chain not yet developed, no convergence on technologies
  • Opportunity now through R&D, partnerships with industry, policies to lead
  • California could be largest floating offshore wind market in the world
  • Some of best technology providers, such as Principal Power, are not deploying in U.S. market
    • They are instead doing it in Scotland, Portugal where gov’t ambition is higher

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